High-Resolution Downscaled Simulations of Warm-Season Extreme Precipitation Events in the Colorado Front Range under Past and Future Climates*

A high-resolution case-based approach for dynamically downscaling climate model data is presented. Extreme precipitation events are selected from regional climate model (RCM) simulations of past and future time periods. Each event is further downscaled using theWeatherResearch and Forecasting (WRF)Model to storm scale (1.3-km grid spacing). The high-resolution downscaled simulations are used to investigate changes in extreme precipitation projections from a past to a future climate period, as well as how projected precipitation intensity and distribution differ between the RCM scale (50-km grid spacing) and the local scale (1.3-km grid spacing). Three independent RCM projections are utilized as initial and boundary conditions to the downscaled simulations, and the results reveal considerable spread in projected changes not only among the RCMs but also in the downscaled high-resolution simulations. However, even when the RCMprojections show an overall (i.e., spatially averaged) decrease in the intensity of extreme events, localized maxima in the high-resolution simulations of extreme events can remain as strong or even increase. An ingredients-based analysis of prestorm instability, moisture, and forcing for ascent illustrates that while instability and moisture tend to increase in the future simulations at both regional and local scales, local forcing, synoptic dynamics, and terrain-relative winds are quite variable. Nuanced differences in larger-scale andmesoscale dynamics are a key determinant in each event’s resultant precipitation. Very high-resolution dynamical downscaling enables a more detailed representation of extreme precipitation events and their relationship to their surrounding environments with fewer parameterization-based uncertainties and provides a framework for diagnosing climate model errors.